01
Fragmented by default
There is rarely one canonical dataset. The work begins by collecting and reconciling the underlying market record.
Independent supply chain research
Research where the market doesn't.
Original research on commodity markets that are economically important, structurally opaque and poorly served by conventional coverage. The data comes first; the view comes after.
Primary-sourcecustoms, auctions, policy, flows
Physical-marketsupply chains before narratives
Auditablefact, inference, unknown, forecast
Coverage by research economicsNot index weight.
HazelnutsTurkey
TeaIndia · Sri Lanka · Kenya
Gum arabicSahel · India
Minor metalsTungsten · Tin
Physical flowsDry bulk · Trade
Why undercovered?
Some of the most interesting markets have the weakest information infrastructure.
In smaller commodity markets, the useful record often lives in auction bulletins, customs tables, local-language releases, port activity, policy documents and difficult historical series. That fragmentation is the research opportunity.
02
Thin consensus
Crop, intervention, logistics and trade changes can matter materially while receiving little systematic institutional coverage.
03
Physical before narrative
Exports, auction clearances, inventories, route economics and intervention mechanics matter more than second-hand commentary.
Coverage universe
Small markets. Deep work.
Coverage is intentionally concentrated. Each market earns a source map, reconciled history, model or analytical framework, release calendar and a view on what can actually change price.
Specialty agricultureCore
Hazelnuts
Turkey crop formation, TMO intervention regimes, exchange data, exports and buyer behaviour.
Turkey · Black Sea · Europe
Specialty agricultureCore
Tea
Auction and production data across India, Sri Lanka and Kenya, rebuilt with publication-lag discipline.
South Asia · East Africa
Soft commoditiesResearch
Gum arabic
Mirror statistics, origin attribution, trade rerouting and Sahel-to-India supply-chain reconstruction.
Sahel · India · Europe
Minor metalsModel
Tungsten
APT pricing, Chinese supply, mine output and trade flows across a difficult and inconsistent historical record.
APT · China · Global
Minor metalsData lake
Tin
Trade-flow reconstruction across refined tin, unwrought products and ore, with Indonesia as a key supply focus.
Indonesia · Asia · Global
Transport intelligenceBuilding
Dry bulk
Vessel movement, sea and rail routes, cargo economics and observable physical constraints.
AIS · Routes · Freight
Evidence boundary
Separate what is known from what is believed.
Every note should make its epistemic boundary visible. Facts, inference, unknowns and forecasts are deliberately separated so readers can see exactly where the analytical judgement begins.
Fact
Observed record
Published data, documented policy, physical flows and other evidence directly supported by the source record.
Inference
Best explanation
The interpretation that most closely fits the available evidence, stated as interpretation rather than fact.
Unknown
Missing information
Data gaps and unresolved questions that would materially change confidence in the conclusion.
Forecast
Testable view
A forward-looking claim paired with the evidence that would support or disconfirm it.
Research method
Build the evidence before the opinion.
The objective is not simply to produce a dataset. It is to reconstruct what market participants could actually have known, then connect physical changes to price and risk.
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Source primary records
Government statistics, auction releases, customs data, exchanges, policy announcements and physical-flow sources.
02
Reconcile the history
Duplicates, re-statements, missing periods, unit changes and regime breaks are treated as research questions, not hidden cleaning steps.
03
Respect publication lag
Backtests and indicators use the date information became available, protecting models from look-ahead bias.
04
Model the physical market
Supply, exports, inventories, logistics, policy and seasonality are linked to price through interpretable drivers.
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Publish the change
The note focuses on what changed, why it matters, the implied path, and what would falsify the thesis.
Research desk
Work built from the underlying market record.
The research library is designed around discrete questions rather than a constant volume of commentary. When the evidence changes, the view changes with it.
Gum arabic
The Mali Multiplier
Mirror statistics and origin attribution in India's rapidly changing gum arabic supply.
Current research
Hazelnuts
Turkey intervention and price formation
TMO regimes, crop expectations, local-market signals and export cadence.
Core coverage
Tea
Rebuilding the auction record
Consistent multi-market history across India, Sri Lanka and Kenya with release-lag controls.
Core coverage
Tungsten
APT supply and the data problem
Reconciling price, mine and trade series where pre-history and revisions can distort signals.
Model
Tin
Indonesia trade-flow reconstruction
Building a comparable lake across HS 8001, 800110, 800120 and 260900.
Data lake
Research access
For investors, corporates and market participants who need the underlying record.
Use the form to register interest in research access, discuss a market, or ask about a specific supply-chain question.
Independent research for information purposes only. Not investment, legal or compliance advice.